Statement EES President Dr Ingo Friedrich, July 13, 2023
I currently see four acute crises in particular that politicians and citizens need to overcome:
- The broken European peace guarantee and the new multipolar world order
For 70 years it was clear that there would be no more war in Europe. This wonderful security was brutally destroyed by Putin's war of aggression. And many people now fear that everything will start to slip. I hope and believe that none of the major powers are interested in escalating this conflict. In the worst case, this would mean that the conflict would be frozen in the next few months and, like other conflicts, would not really be resolved but would remain in a "cold state". The same applies to the Cyprus conflict and the North/South Korea situation. That would not be an ideal solution, but the world could somehow live with it and a certain normality could return to our European life and work.
And: in the future, no longer bipolar, but multipolar world order, the major global powers such as China, the USA or (still) Russia will no longer play such a prominent role. On the contrary, alliances of groups of states such as the G7, BRICS, the European Union, NATO and ASEAN will take on a completely new and greater significance. In this respect, European cooperation in the EU is right in line with history. Where large states used to absorb smaller neighbors in order to become larger themselves, today they must court neighbors in order to obtain their voluntary cooperation.
- The new self-confidence of minorities
It causes fear and concern for many citizens that many minorities appear today with a completely different self-confidence and thus appear almost dominant in the media. Just think of Christopher Street Day, “climate stickers”, Turkish Erdoğan supporters, people of color and so on. Where the focus used to be on rapid adjustment and integration into the majority opinion and society, many minorities today want to be officially recognized and appreciated for their “being different”, so to speak. They sometimes appear with a certain sense of mission, which many citizens see as inappropriate.
A rather gigantic learning process is expected of all of us here, especially in view of the pace of development. In this case, too, I hope and expect that not only time will heal wounds, but that a certain serenity, even a certain sovereignty, will spread so that all those involved learn to be tactful, tolerant and with some understanding towards those who think differently. This new tolerance should not only be exercised by the majority towards the minorities, but also by the minorities towards the majority. Such tectonic social changes take time and cannot simply be imposed on the majority - see the immature gendering.
- The new trend to the right in Europe and its consequences for politics
Even if many people don't like it and even if there is a terrible right-wing extremist past in many countries, we have to find ways to deal with this political right-wing development in daily practice. In concrete terms, this means that a clear distinction must be made between a middle-class-right and right-wing-radical attitude. The substantive separation between the two runs roughly along the line: for or against the Euro and Europe, for or against NATO, for or against the democratic-liberal basic order, for or against equal rights for all people over a national preference within the citizens.
With the former political stance, all democratic parties must remain able to work together, even if some find it difficult, while maintaining the famous firewall against a so defined far-right stance. In Bavaria, the prototypes of this structure can be clearly identified: the Free Voters are within the democratic arc, the AfD is outside. Some things are more difficult at European level, but there too one can hope that, for example, the Italian Prime Minister Meloni - despite her fascist past - will increasingly move within the democratic arc, while Victor Orban or Marie Le Pen are clearly outside.
- The new No. 1 in the world: China or America?
After the Second World War, the global world order was easily overseeable: the victorious power USA set the global standards in economy, politics and culture. The country of "unlimited opportunities" was the undisputed No. 1 in the world and its democratic and liberal ideals influenced the whole world.
Quite different today: autocratic China is vigorously shaking up the previous world order and obviously wants to become the new global No. 1. Both major powers are also gathering the new blocs around them: China the BRICS countries, the USA NATO and the G7. Historically, such fundamental reorganizations of the power structure have always had dramatic effects on everyone involved.
Such drama must be avoided at all costs today, but how: I see an opportunity in the fact that, unlike in the past, business, technology, innovations and information are so intertwined and interconnected globally that a global military power struggle would not produce a winner, but only horrible losers. If this realization has reached all those involved, there is a chance that the expected role battles will be fought out with all possible means, but not militarily. It's not going to be nice, but the motto also applies here: we Europeans could live with that.
By the way: a complete decoupling of the German and European economy from China is not possible! At best, we can reduce the risks, but a complete separation from Chinese supplies is no longer enforceable.
Coping with climate change is deliberately not included in global crisis management, because other criteria and contexts apply to it.